The president put it in capital letters: "No more Sanctuary Cities! They protect the Criminals, not the Victims," posting that the cities are "death traps" disgracing the country. [1] The Washington Post's fact-checker gave the death-traps line Three Pinocchios, because the claim runs directly against what the research shows. [1] The studies do not just fail to find more crime in sanctuary jurisdictions. They find less.

What the research found

The most direct test comes from a Center for American Progress and National Immigration Law Center analysis that matched sanctuary counties to comparable nonsanctuary ones. Sanctuary counties averaged 35.5 fewer crimes per 10,000 residents. [2] They also had higher median household income, by about $4,353, a poverty rate 2.3 points lower, and unemployment 1.1 points lower. [2] As the study's author, political scientist Tom Wong, put it, the purported links between sanctuary policies and crime are simply not supported by the evidence. [2]

The studies agree

This is not one outlier paper. FactCheck.org's review of the literature concluded that sanctuary policies have no effect on crime rates despite narratives to the contrary, citing analyses that found no statistically discernible difference in violent crime, rape, or property crime between sanctuary and nonsanctuary areas. [3] A 2020 study of roughly 300 counties found sanctuary policies had no measurable effect on crime, even though they reduced deportations by about a third, and a 2021 study found no effect on robbery or homicide and a decrease in property crime after adoption. [1]

Why the direction makes sense

There is a straightforward mechanism behind the numbers. When local police are not acting as immigration agents, immigrant residents are more willing to report crimes, serve as witnesses, and cooperate with investigations, instead of avoiding the police out of fear of deportation. [3] A community that talks to its police is easier to keep safe, not harder.

THE BOTTOM LINE

  • "Death traps" that "protect the Criminals": False [1]
  • Sanctuary counties average 35.5 fewer crimes per 10,000 residents than comparable nonsanctuary counties [2]
  • A decade of independent studies finds no link between sanctuary policy and higher crime [1][3]

The slogan and the research point in opposite directions, and only one of them comes with data. Sanctuary jurisdictions are not where safety goes to die. By the measured numbers, they are modestly safer and better off than the comparable places held up as the alternative.