The Supreme Court ruled today that a state may count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked on or before it. Within hours, the president posted his read of the decision and of anyone who agrees with it: "There is only one reason to oppose - CHEATING!" [1] The thing he is calling cheating is a counting rule that has been on the books, in plain daylight, for decades.

THE CLAIM

  • The president says the only reason to support counting these ballots is "CHEATING" [1]
  • The ballots in question were cast on or before Election Day
  • They simply finished their trip through the mail afterward

What the ruling actually did

The case is Watson v. Republican National Committee, and the vote was 5 to 4 to uphold the Mississippi law. [2] The majority opinion was written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, appointed by the same president now calling the outcome cheating, and she was joined by Chief Justice Roberts and the court's three liberals. [2] The law lets the state count a ballot received up to five days after the election only if the postmark shows it was sent by Election Day. The court found that does not conflict with the federal Election Day statute.

The practice he is calling cheating is decades old

This is not a loophole someone invented this year. Fourteen states plus the District of Columbia count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive afterward, and 29 states plus D.C. allow at least some late-arriving military and overseas ballots. [2] The grace periods are written into law: ten days in Alaska, seven in California, fourteen in Illinois, seven in New York. [3] Service members deployed overseas rely on exactly this rule to have their votes counted.

THE RECEIPTS

  • Watson v. RNC: upheld 5-4, majority written by Trump appointee Amy Coney Barrett [2]
  • 14 states plus D.C. already count timely-postmarked, late-arriving ballots [2]
  • Statutory grace periods: Alaska 10 days, Illinois 14, California and New York 7 [3]

The fraud that would make it cheating does not exist

For the practice to be cheating, late-arriving mail ballots would have to be a vehicle for fraud. The record says they are not. The Brennan Center notes that Oregon has mailed out more than 100 million ballots since 2000 and documented only about a dozen proven cases of fraud, a rate of 0.00001 percent. [4] By that math, an American is more likely to be struck by lightning than to commit mail-voting fraud. [4]

THE BOTTOM LINE

  • "Only one reason to oppose - CHEATING": False [1]
  • The court preserved a lawful, decades-old grace period, in an opinion by the president's own appointee [2]
  • Documented mail-ballot fraud is essentially nonexistent: 0.00001 percent in Oregon [4]

A ruling can go against your side without being a crime. The president's own appointee looked at a rule that lets a soldier's ballot count if the postmark proves it was mailed in time, and said it is legal, because it is. Calling that cheating does not make it cheating. It just tells voters that the count they can verify is the thing they are supposed to fear.