Pull up a chair. When a president sends troops into a city, the reason he gives matters, so let's check it. The justification for the federal takeover of policing in Washington was a number: "Murders in 2023 reached the highest rate probably ever." [1] I went and found the rate. It was a 20-year high. It was not a record, it was not close to one, and by the time he said it the line was already heading down.
THE CLAIM
- "Murders in 2023 reached the highest rate probably ever" [1]
- Used to justify a federal takeover of D.C. policing
- The actual 2023 rate was a 20-year high, not an all-time one
What the record actually shows
D.C.'s murder rate in 2023 was about 39 per 100,000 people. [1] That is the worst the city had seen in roughly two decades, and nobody should wave it off. It is also a long way from a record. The 1991 peak was over 80 per 100,000, more than double the 2023 figure. [1] "Highest in 20 years" and "highest ever" are not the same sentence, and the gap between them is an entire era of the city's history that was worse.
Data
| 1991 peak (over 80) | 80 |
|---|---|
| 2023 (called highest ever) | 39 |
| 2024 | 27.5 |
It was already falling
Here is the part that turns the claim inside out. The 2023 number was not climbing toward a record. It was a peak that immediately broke. D.C. homicides fell 32 percent from 2023 to 2024, and the city's overall violent crime dropped 35 percent to its lowest level in more than 30 years, with the murder rate down to about 27.5 per 100,000. [1] This was not D.C. alone. FBI data show violent crime nationwide fell 4.5 percent in 2024, with murder down nearly 15 percent, robbery down 8.9 percent, and aggravated assault down 3 percent, drawn from agencies covering more than 95 percent of the country. [2]
THE RECEIPTS
- 2023 D.C. rate: about 39 per 100,000, a 20-year high, half the 1991 peak of over 80 [1]
- D.C. homicides fell 32 percent into 2024; violent crime hit a 30-year low [1]
- FBI: U.S. violent crime down 4.5 percent in 2024, murder down nearly 15 percent [2]
The honest assessment
A real spike happened, and the people who lived through it are right to want it gone. The claim built on top of it is still false. "Highest probably ever" describes a rate that was beaten badly in 1991 and was falling fast by the time it was invoked. When the number used to put soldiers on a city's streets is the opposite of the trend, that is not a small slip. It is the whole case resting on a word the data does not support. Facts are hard to argue with. I'm Mark, and this is Pixel Politics.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- "Highest rate probably ever": False [1]
- 2023 was a 20-year high, not a record, and barely half the 1991 peak [1]
- Crime was already falling, in D.C. and nationally, when the claim was made [1][2]
