Europe spent the last week under a heat wave that killed more than a thousand people and broke temperature records across the continent. [4] As it did, the United States Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, appeared by video at a London conference and offered a reason not to worry. "Always more people die in the winter than die in the summer," he said, "because cold is a vastly larger killer than heat is." [1][2]
The statistic underneath that is real. The conclusion he hangs on it is not.
The part that is true
Across a full year, in temperate climates, cold-related deaths do outnumber heat-related ones. That is a genuine finding, and Wright is not the only person to cite it. Stated plainly and left there, it is a fact.
The part he left out
Two things. First, in the United States, heat is already the deadliest weather hazard there is. The CDC counted an average of about 700 heat-related deaths a year from 2004 to 2018, and 1,714 in 2022 alone. [3][5] The National Weather Service ranks heat as the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the country, ahead of hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes. [5]
Data
| Average, 2004-2018 | 702deaths |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 1714deaths |
Second, the balance between cold and heat deaths is not fixed. It is shifting, because the product Wright's department exists to promote, fossil fuels, is making heat waves like the one he was downplaying more intense. The scientists at World Weather Attribution found that this June's European heat wave would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius cooler during the day in a 1976 climate, and that roughly 45 percent of Europe's urban areas broke heat-stress records. [4]
Data
| Daytime | 3.5degrees C vs 1976 |
|---|---|
| Nighttime | 2.4degrees C vs 1976 |
Why this misleads
Citing a real statistic is not the problem. Using it to dismiss a deadly, worsening disaster is. Wright took a true fact about the current balance of cold and heat deaths and deployed it, during a heat wave that was killing people, to suggest heat is not a serious danger - while leaving out that heat already kills the most Americans, and that his own industry is driving the heat up. Heat waves now kill more people in Europe than every other natural hazard combined. [4]
There was a sales pitch attached, too. Wright made the remarks while urging Europe to buy more American natural gas. [1] The fuel he was there to sell is part of what is making the heat he was dismissing worse.
The honest version
A thermometer does not care which season has historically killed more. The people under this week's heat needed shade, water, and a grid that holds, not a reassurance built on the half of the data that flattered the argument. The honest sentence is the one Wright did not say: heat is a rising killer, and the fuel he was there to sell is part of the reason.
