Here is the play. On Sunday night the President told America's gas stations to cut their prices, fast. "Gasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY!" he wrote, and told them to "Start targeting around the $2.50 a Gallon number." [1]
I get the instinct. Gas is expensive. The national average that day was $3.86 a gallon, about $3.19 a year ago. [1] When the number on the sign climbs, somebody is taking your money, and it feels good to hear a President point a finger.
He pointed it at the wrong guy. Pull a gallon of gas apart and look at who actually gets the dollars.
Data
| Crude oil | 57% |
|---|---|
| Refining | 21% |
| Taxes | 14% |
| Distribution and marketing | 8% |
WHO GETS YOUR GAS DOLLAR
- Crude oil: 57 cents of every dollar. [2]
- Refining: 21 cents. [2]
- Taxes: 14 cents. [2]
- The gas station's entire cut, distribution and marketing: 8 cents. [2]
The corner station is the smallest piece of what you pay. If every gas retailer in America worked for free tomorrow, eight cents would come off a gallon. The President is yelling at the 8 and ignoring the 57.
What is the 57? Crude oil, a global price set in a market no President orders around. Here is the part the post skips: crude jumped this month because of the war with Iran and the scare over the Strait of Hormuz, the channel a fifth of the world's oil moves through. [1] You do not get to spike the oil price and then tell the cashier to eat it.
There is also the matter of the number itself. The 2024 promise was not $2.50. It was gas under $2 a gallon, said plainly at a Pennsylvania rally. [4] The trackers who follow it call it stalled, and note he has repeatedly and falsely said it was already met. [4] The target has quietly slid to $2.50, and the pump still says $3.86. [1]
Data
| 2024 promise | 2$ |
|---|---|
| June 29 target | 2.5$ |
| Year ago | 3.19$ |
| June 29, 2026 | 3.86$ |
| May 2026 (EIA) | 4.61$ |
THE VERDICT: MISLEADING
Pump prices are real and they hurt. Blaming the gas station is misdirection: its margin is 8 percent of the price, while crude oil, 57 percent and pushed up by this month's Iran war, is the part doing the work. A President can move the 8. He cannot order down the 57. [1][2]
The price on the sign is mostly set far above the gas station's pay grade. Telling the cashier to fix it is not a plan. It is a way to be seen yelling while the oil market does what it was always going to do.
