Sixty-seven million people in thirteen states and Washington are riding out a 100-degree week on the PJM grid, and the federal government has told them whom to blame if the lights flicker. Announcing emergency orders for the region, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said "the previous administration's energy subtraction policies weakened the grid, leaving Americans more vulnerable during events like this." [1]
The grid's own operator tells a different story, in its own filings, with its own numbers.
What the operator actually reported
PJM's summer assessment, published in May, says the system entered this season with about 180,200 megawatts of generation plus 7,800 megawatts of on-call demand response, against a typical summer peak near 156,400 megawatts - its headline was that it is "prepared to meet growing summer demand with adequate resources." [2] Its operations chief, Michael Bryson, named the actual risk: "continued load growth driven by data centers that is outpacing the addition of new generation." [2]
Today is the test. PJM forecasts an evening peak of 166,147 megawatts, which would break the all-time record of 165,563 megawatts - a record set in 2006, and never touched in the two decades since, including the entire administration Wright blames. [3][5] What changed is not that the grid subtracted supply; it is that AI data centers, concentrated in Virginia and Maryland, added demand at a pace no grid in the country has seen. [2][6]
Data
| All-time record, set 2006 | 165,563 |
|---|---|
| Forecast peak today | 166,147 |
| Generation PJM has available | 180,200 |
The orders concede the point
Read what the Secretary's own emergency orders do. One lets PJM push large customers - 50 megawatts and up, which in this region means data centers - onto their backup generators within 15 minutes. The other lets plants already running flat-out exceed pollution limits through tomorrow night. [1] Neither order un-retires a power plant or restores anything "subtracted." Both manage a demand problem, which is the problem the operator diagnosed.
Supply, meanwhile, is growing. PJM's latest capacity auction procured 134,311 megawatts, including 2,669 megawatts of new generation and upgrades - the first increase in new generation in four auctions - while 17 power plants withdrew their retirement plans. [4]
What the fine print costs you
The demand story is not free for the people who live here. PJM's independent market monitor found data-center growth is "the primary reason" for current capacity-market conditions, adding $9.3 billion - a 174 percent increase - to capacity costs for this delivery year. [6] Residential electricity is up 42 percent nationally in five years; in Maryland it is up 74 percent, and in Washington 94 percent. [6] Those bills are the fine print of the AI boom, and a blame story about 2021 does not lower a single one of them.
The honest version
There is a real concern inside the spin, and PJM itself states it: new generation is not being added fast enough to keep pace with demand, and plant retirements in past years tightened the margin. [2] A serious version of the Secretary's argument would say that - and would note that his own department celebrated solar as unnecessary as recently as February, when Wright called it "extra electricity when I don't need it." [8] During last June's heat-wave peak, solar was supplying 6 percent of PJM's generation at the peak hour. [7] A 102-degree evening is exactly when he needs it.
The record may fall tonight. If it does, it will fall to demand the operator saw coming, on a grid it says is adequate - not to a subtraction nobody can find in the filings. [2][3]
