Lead with the number and its source: 47 percent. That is the share of service firms that paid tariffs directly and told the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that more tariff-induced price increases are still to come. Manufacturers: 44 percent [1]. The question behind those numbers is the one the whole tariff argument turns on - are the price increases over? - and it was answered not by politicians or pundits but by the firms writing the checks.
Data
| Service firms | 47% saying yes |
|---|---|
| Manufacturers | 44% saying yes |
Show the math under the headline figure. The New York Fed's economists - Abel, Amiti, Deitz, Heise, and Montalbano - drew on the bank's May Regional Business Surveys. Exposure first: 40 percent of service firms and 70 percent of manufacturers in the region paid tariffs directly in the past 12 months [1]. Of those payers, the shares reporting more increases ahead break down by timing: roughly 30 percent of service firms and 40 percent of manufacturers expect to raise prices within the next six months, with another 16 and 7 percent respectively on longer horizons [1].
The mechanism matters more than any single figure, because it explains why the debate keeps misfiring. Firms told the surveyors they raise prices gradually - a 'trickle up,' in the post's phrase - deliberately metering the tariff into prices over time to avoid shocking their customers [1]. A tariff imposed a year ago is still arriving at the register today, in installments sized to escape notice. Anyone declaring the price effect finished after a calm monthly print is measuring the pauses between installments.
This closes a loop the government's own documents opened this week. The Fed's June minutes attributed the rise in inflation to 'the lingering effects of tariffs' and called the pressures 'more broad based' [2] - we reported that finding against the Treasury Secretary's dog-that-didn't-bark claim when the minutes landed. The minutes said lingering; the survey now says how much lingers and for how long, by the payers' own account: nearly half the pipeline, still pressurized, most of it due within six months. The receipt is not done printing.
