The June inflation report, released Tuesday morning, carried a number the White House had been waiting for. Consumer prices rose 3.5 percent over the year through June, down from 4.2 percent in May - the first decline in five months, and below what forecasters expected [1][2]. The claim followed within hours: the figures, Breitbart wrote, showed that 'the extremely low inflation in core goods prices suggests that President Trump's tariffs have not raised prices for consumers, upending the widespread criticism from many economists' [3].
One number did nearly all the work, and it was not a tariff number. The all-items index fell 0.4 percent on the month - the largest one-month drop since April 2020 - and almost all of it was energy [1][2]. Gasoline fell 9.7 percent and the energy index 5.7 percent, in the oil slump that followed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding [2]. Take energy out and the picture is far less triumphant: core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was still running 2.6 percent, down only slightly from 2.9 [1].
Data
| Apr 2026 | 3.8 CPI, % change year-over-year |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 4.2 CPI, % change year-over-year |
| Jun 2026 | 3.5 CPI, % change year-over-year |
The claim rests on a category error. A fall in the price of crude oil says nothing about whether tariffs are being passed through to consumers - those are different goods, moving for different reasons [1]. Core goods prices holding flat for a single month is not evidence that tariffs are costless; it sits on top of the cumulative price increases of every month before it, which do not reverse because gasoline got cheaper in June.
The relief also reads like a loan against next month. 'The improvement will be short-lived as the war in Iran restarts,' the economist Heather Long warned, noting that oil and gas prices have already begun edging back up - a rebound that June's index will not capture for another month [2]. A number driven down by a one-time oil dip is set to be driven back up by the same oil.
Falling inflation is genuinely good news for anyone buying gas this week, and the June print is real. What it is not is proof that tariffs cost nothing, or that the affordability problem is solved - core prices are still climbing at 2.6 percent, the drop was one fuel in one month, and the oil that delivered it was already turning around [1][2]. The number fell. The reasons it will not stay down were printed the same day [2].
