The objective was stated plainly enough to be checked: degrade Iran's ability to target commercial shipping [1]. Speaking in Manila on July 23, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the campaign's effect in the same register - 'They're already paying a price every single night' [1].
The price at the strait is measurable, and shipping is paying it. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 39 tanker transits of the Strait of Hormuz in the week of July 13 to 19 [2]. The week before it was 85. The week before that, 109 [2].
Strip out Iranian-linked vessels and the fall is steeper: 25 transits, down from 108 [2]. Inbound vessels dropped from 43 to 8 [2]. Movements of very large crude carriers, the ships that move oil in quantity, fell from 35 to 9 [2]. Total traffic is down roughly 90 percent against the same point last year [2].
The character of what remains says as much as the volume. Nearly 70 percent of observed transits ran dark - transponders off, the ship electronically invisible - up from 55 percent the previous week and 42 percent the week before [2]. Going dark is what a crew does when being seen is the danger.
The interdictions have not stopped. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that in the 24 hours to July 25 they stopped four ships attempting the strait, fired warning shots, and turned them around [3].
Downstream of all of it is a number Americans read off a roadside sign. The national average for regular gasoline hit $4.091 on July 23, up 15 cents in a week and 94 cents in a year, with AAA citing 'volatility along the Strait of Hormuz' [4].
Fourteen nights in, the shipping is not protected [2]. It is hiding [2].
