US Homicide Is on Track for Its Lowest Rate Since at Least 1900

The Council on Criminal Justice's mid-year report across 36 cities finds homicide down 18 percent year over year and 51 percent below the 2022 peak, projecting a national rate near 4.0 per 100,000. Nine of thirteen offence types fell.

By Naomi Okafor2026-07-26

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The Council on Criminal Justice tracks 13 offence types across 36 American cities, and its mid-year report puts homicide down 18 percent in the first half of 2026 against the same months of 2025 [1].

Measured against the 2022 peak, homicide is down 51 percent. The projected national rate is about 4.0 per 100,000 - which, if it holds, would be the lowest since at least 1900 [1].

Nine of the thirteen offence types fell year over year. Carjacking fell furthest, by 47 percent [1].

Four did not. Drug offences rose 12 percent, domestic violence 8 percent and shoplifting 5 percent [1]. A report that found everything falling would be a report to distrust; this one did not.

The authors are Ernesto Lopez of the Council on Criminal Justice and Bobby Boxerman of REJIS [1]. What their numbers describe is a country that, on the measure people fear most, is safer than it has been in the lifetime of anyone reading this.

Sources

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[1]
Council on Criminal Justice - Homicide likely reaching a new historic low as most crime rates continue to decline at mid-year
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Naomi Okafor

Hunts for the bill that actually passed, the organizer who actually won, the mayor who actually delivered, and believes celebrating the good is as much a duty as exposing the bad. Volunteers at a food pantry.