Monday was priced as a breakthrough. Reports circulated that Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman brokering [1], and Brent fell to $87.94 - down 9.13 percent on a quote timestamped just before midnight UAE time [4].
The measured traffic went in the opposite direction.
As of trackers stamped 03:11Z on July 28, the closure is on day 149. Vessels stranded in the zone: 431, up from the 425 we reported yesterday. Transits remain at 17 percent of normal on the most recent IMF PortWatch count. War-risk insurance is still around $2.5 million per VLCC passage, eight times pre-crisis. Six protection-and-indemnity clubs have now withdrawn cover [1] - the insurance market voting with its balance sheet rather than its commentary.
A separate tanker tracker, counting its own set of vessels, recorded a seven-day average of 0.9 transits a day, down 50 percent on the prior week. Two transits on July 26. Eight vessels in the zone moving at between zero and 2.2 knots [2], which is the speed of a ship that is not going anywhere.
A note on those figures, because they are not the same measurement: the 88-a-day PortWatch baseline counts all vessels, while the tanker tracker counts tankers it follows. The minus-50-percent is valid within that tracker's own series and should not be read against the PortWatch number.
Then the part that sits oddly with a ceasefire. During the pause, Iranian state television reported that the IRGC Navy 'stopped' six vessels 'with warning shots and turned back' those attempting 'to transit through a route other than the designated one' [3].
Warning shots are not a reopening.
Tehran also disputes the premise of the diplomacy being reported. Baghaei's account: the reopening talks 'have no connection with the United States. They are a bilateral matter between Iran and Oman, and they are continuing.'
