A 1.4-point move in a confidence index is close to noise. The honest thing is to say so before saying what is not noise.
The Conference Board's headline Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June [1]. On its own that is a small step in a long, wobbly line.
Two things underneath it are not small.
The first is the Present Situation Index, down 3.6 points to 114.9 - a third consecutive monthly decline [1].
That index is not a forecast. It asks people to rate business and labour conditions as they find them today, which makes a three-month run of declines a report on lived experience rather than a mood about the future.
The Expectations Index, by contrast, did not move at all, holding at 74.7 [1]. People are not getting gloomier about next year. They are rating this year worse.
The second is the labour differential - the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying jobs are hard to get. It slipped 0.7 points to 3.1 percent, and the Board attributes the move to fewer people reporting abundant openings rather than to more people reporting scarcity [1].
That is the softer of the two ways a labour market can weaken. It is still weakening.
Then there are the write-ins, the least statistical and most human part of the survey, where consumers volunteer whatever is on their mind.
Mentions of conflict and geopolitics eased this month. Commentary on food and grocery prices intensified [1].
Chief economist Dana M. Peterson's summary is that confidence 'moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021' [1].
Since late 2021 is nearly five years.
Two details cut the other way and belong here. Purchasing plans for homes and cars kept rising on a six-month average, and travel intentions recovered in July after falling most of the year [1].
People are still buying. They are rating the conditions they are buying in a little worse each month.
